Mr. Optimistic the EU-Turkey deal will not work, unless...| by Mulay Smara
Okay folks who may or may not be optimistic about the so called EU-TURKEY recent deal: Returning the refugees to Turkey.
I am here to tell why that deal will not work and if it does it will a be disgrace and a violation of the international law.
THE DEAL:
The bilateral crafted deal was a surprise to the most of EU member, as it was mainly led by Germany and it all comes down to reducing the flow of refugees, and in exchange toTurkey providing a temporary protection to Syrian refugees so the EU in return speed the process of issuing or allowing a free travel visa to the Schengen continent for the Turks.
Now That increases the adds of adding Turkey to the EU. At the cost of the Helpless refugees.
The EU have attempted in many occasions to tackle the refugee flow crisis, however, this time they really did take it serious but trust me this might very well backfire on the EU if the deal doesn't work.
Back to the point
First, it is not about money: EU offering more cash to Turkey to petrol it's border doesn't come nearly to solving the main crises. In fact, it adds the fuel to the fire...
Greece will be the first to suffer from this deal
The deal came to effect on the 20th of March, however and According to the Fortex the EU border agency over 1,500 refugees crossed from Turkey to Greek Island on Sunday.
That number adds up to the already existing asylum seekers which sums up to 7, 500. Many of these refugees are already in the process of being moved to the mainland to "free more space."
Except that's not the reason, the reason is according to the international law and joneva convention: All countries are obliged to review assylem seekers application and can't return them until than.
The point is Greece will not return refugees without processing their application, and given the available data it is clear that Greece doesn't have a robust or solid Asylum system.
In addition to that, Greece to deport thousands without having the facilities to process them will drain its economy and will lead to the failure of the first phase of the deal.
Turkey, Turkey : is it a safe place to return refugees to? ( you tell me)
According to the international rules, asylum seekers can only be sent to countries that are in fact considered safe (EU vs Turkey vs recent terrorist attacks...and let's not forget about the Kurds)
In addition to that: the law states that the host countries must offer people the possibility of obtaining a refugee status.
And thats where the whole deal promises fails: Under the Turkish law, Syrians are only able to get a temporary protection with restricted access to jobs, education...
Come on: Is the EU really, I mean really optimistic about the deal to work?
If we try to understand why this deal was drafted: we come to understand that is it a TEMPORARILY measure to reduce the flow of refugees. Therefore if it fails to meet what it meant to address it is simply going to be suspended like many laws ( the EU is known for drafting laws when it comes to crisis)
But, let's give the EU the benefits of the doubt by addressing the issue if and when the deal actually works.
In that regards the EU is willing to admit roughly 72.000 refugees. That means the EU humanitarian admission or resettlement plan from Turkey will fail if the number exceeded it's threshold.
Now that we are optimistic about the deal: it turns out that over 2.4 million Syrian refugees are currently in Turkey and the EU already have invested 3 billions on this crisis.
So, as you can see Mr. Optimistic that the only way for the EU to address the flow of refugees is to help stop the war in Syrian and hope that some of the Syrians still have a home to return to. Which unfortunately is less likely due to the EU/USA/Russian/Iran/Soudi Arabia interest in the region.
Hats off for Erdogan and Turkey
Believe it or not, Turkey is playing the card of the EU desperate measures to address the crises.
Erdogan already recieved 3 billions in the last 3 months but asked for more knowing that the EU will not think twice if they are promised to not receive anymore refugees.
It worked this time, the Turkish government is perusing a bigger goal and follow a very specific agenda that in my opinion will cost them in the long run.
Turkey will not comply with the EU regardless what Erdogan government says and the deal will fail...why because he is winning either ways.
Refugees are seen as a potential terrorist: The Trump Theory
Given the recent davastating terorists attacks in Paris and Brussels, many national government are pushing toward hardening their security measures. However, it is rather difficult to screen refugees without any background records on the EU potential terrorist database.
And even though there is no indication of the involvement of refugees in the recent attacks, the EU will likely start screening refugees by providing all the necessary tools to the Turkish government instead.
FINALLY, and to be very frank it's unlikely that this deal will work and it will likely cause even more problems such as refugees finding harder ways and dangerous routes to enter the EU.( yes you guessed it: Libya, Egypt..Tunisia ) that will lead to more life loss.
But if the deal works it is likely by forcing Turkey to treat Syrians as refugees and give them the right to work and peruse their education.
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